Monday, November 16, 2009
Oil crisis is hopefully 35yrs away
my thoughts on this evocative article.
A simple tax is favored by Oil companies so it is therefore suspect. It would also allow the Oil companies to pass the tax along directly to the consumer. Cap and trade limits emissions a tax does not, it only increases total cost to the consumer.
What was the reason for $147 a barrel? We were told it was the gulf hurricane katrina, Iraq, not enough refining capabilities etc. Only in 2008 was it Chinese high demand. I believe it was pure speculation to allow oil companies more profit (but I hope more R&D money with a mid-term view to extraction)
In a historical perspective man's technological achievements have out paced his consumption, remembering we have used oil for less than 150yrs and did ok prior to that. You point to recession as our only outcome? Pretty dire stuff, I too am concerned with Peak oil but when it all comes down to it money and 'credit' are arbitrary tools to enable us to live and prosper. The cost of any item in a modern society is dictated by its need.
Are cell phones that are basically mini computers and beam instantaneous signals to outer space via solar power really only costing $29.00??! Debt can be weapon in geo-political negotiations. If your predictions are right we will see movement away from oil as prices go up. Hydrogen is feasible now, its cost in relation to oil extraction is the sole barrier to market. I have seen a hydrogen combustion truck.
So we move to a hydrogen transportation infrastructure and re-value all currencies. Coal is good for 250yrs+ but has environmental issues. If we electrify personal transportation and divert investment into solar power we will eventually figure out a way to mimic every other living thing on the planet and mine the Sun.
More energy hits the earth in one hour than we use in a year. I am an optimist, Oildrum, you are a pessimist, lets hope I am right. If not then 2/3 of the civilized planet will suffer when the system fails because none of us can hunt, grow food, store food or purify water even if we could store it.